Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x745e…4225 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$181 (-3%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%95W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days−$201
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$231
sports 30% −$263
other 10% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -38.0% -43.9% 36% 32% -25.0%
≤30d 30 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 40% -11.5%
≤90d 30 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 40% -11.5%
all 157 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 56% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 56% -10.9%
10% -16.8% 51% -19.5%
15% -24.9% 38% -27.2%
20% -32.2% 25% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses95 / 62
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage106d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$58 +71%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 +$75 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $81 −$56 -68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$43 -85%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $31 −$10 -32%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $61 −$46 -76%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 +$3 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $59 −$40 -69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 +$8 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$80 +78%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$30 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $44 −$35 -80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$81 +100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 24 $29 +$21 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 24 $23 +$8 +35%
Miami Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Belinda Bencic Mar 24 $120 −$117 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 22 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 22 $114 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 22 $74 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 22 $33 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 22 $63 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 22 $92 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 22 $25 +$12 +46%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Yulia Putintseva Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 22 $69 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 87¢ $139 53m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $81 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $276 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 26h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 25¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 4d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 15¢ $15 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $61 6d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $59 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 880 history records