Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x745d…1cac world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$2
other 21% −$2
politics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 18% -9.2%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 18% -9.2%
all 30 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 7% -9.5%
10% -22.9% 3% -18.1%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage464d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $23 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $79 −$4 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $26 +$6 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $18 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $4 $0 +11%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $3 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 19 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $23 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $12 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $38 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $9 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $26 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $32 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $25 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $21 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $18 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $9 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $22 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $17 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $21 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 104 history records