Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
74 0x745a…14e8 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$852 (+39%) realized +$852 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$853
politics 42% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 25 +16.9% +5.7% 56% 56% +51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 56% +51.2%
10% -4.4% 56% +36.7%
15% -13.6% 52% +23.5%
20% -22.1% 48% +11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$14 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.21 per $1 lost it wins $7.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$852
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage572d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $410 $410 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $190 $190 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CSA T20 Series: Warriors vs Lions (Game 1) Nov 12 $38 +$12 +32%
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Nov 07 $18 +$20 +113%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 04 $8 +$9 +108%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Oct 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Penguins vs. Ducks Oct 16 $10 +$7 +72%
Twins vs. Rangers Sep 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Pirates vs. Orioles Sep 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Falcons vs. Cowboys Aug 26 $41 +$29 +70%
Pirates vs. Brewers Aug 20 $27 +$13 +49%
Marlins vs. Guardians Aug 13 $16 +$12 +72%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 05 $7 +$5 +70%
Twins vs. Tigers Aug 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Spurs Dec 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Dec 02 $508 +$399 +79%
Thunder vs. Lakers Nov 30 $263 +$243 +92%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Nov 28 $97 +$139 +144%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $54 +$66 +122%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Nov 26 $28 +$32 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $410 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 1h
CSA T20 Series: Warriors vs Lions (Game 1) BUY Warriors 76¢ $38 222d
Lightning vs. Golden Knights BUY Lightning 47¢ $18 226d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 48¢ $8 232d
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs BUY Rangers 44¢ $15 247d
Penguins vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 58¢ $10 249d
Twins vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 56¢ $6 270d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $3 278d
Pirates vs. Orioles BUY Orioles 55¢ $3 282d
Falcons vs. Cowboys BUY Cowboys 59¢ $41 302d
Pirates vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 67¢ $27 311d
Marlins vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 58¢ $16 312d
Twins vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 55¢ $3 319d
Braves vs. Reds BUY Reds 59¢ $7 323d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? SELL No 100¢ $5 437d
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY No 100¢ $5 437d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 439d
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 439d
Will Ana Birchall win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 460d
Fulham wins the Premier League? BUY Yes $2 481d
Leicester City wins the Premier League? BUY Yes $2 493d
Hawks vs. Spurs BUY Hawks 48¢ $105 548d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Suns 56¢ $508 567d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 52¢ $263 569d
Raptors vs. Pelicans BUY Raptors 41¢ $97 570d
Bucks vs. Heat BUY Bucks 45¢ $54 571d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.55 · official $899.55 (match) · 49 history records