Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
74 0x7459…7d09 other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%43W / 47L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$26
world 30% −$9
politics 20% +$2
sports 18% +$3
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.2% -8.4% 20% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 34 -2.6% -11.9% 32% 6% -9.7%
all 90 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses43 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage477d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $290 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $161 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $161 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $162 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $145 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $145 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $17 +$2 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $318 +$11 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $143 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $144 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $162 −$28 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $190 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $190 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $325 −$5 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $63 +$3 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $115 +$9 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $170 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $98 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $97 −$8 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $94 +$3 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $38 +$6 +16%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $996 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $995 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $705 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,094 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $606 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $996 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 20 $4 $0 +11%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $160 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $146 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $116 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $161 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $161 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $161 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $161 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $146 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $146 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $114 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $145 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $145 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $145 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $14 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.25 · official $160.23 (match) · 281 history records