Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7459…5789 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$2
other 13% −$13
politics 5% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -3.0% -12.3% 36% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 -3.0% -12.3% 36% 0% -9.0%
all 40 -8.0% -16.8% 35% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 2% -11.2%
10% -24.8% 0% -19.7%
15% -32.0% 0% -27.4%
20% -38.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage455d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $75 +$4 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $41 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Jaylen Brown Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $6 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $52 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $52 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $52 9h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $41 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $11 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.16 · official $52.44 (match) · 104 history records