Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7458…e26e
crypto · 664 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$44 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses358 / 305
Open positions1
Markets (closed)663 / 664
History coverage52d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 663 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 50¢ 54¢ $34 $37 +$2 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 50¢ 46¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$21 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $96 −$17 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $85 +$28 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $85 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$16 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $150 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $85 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $70 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $85 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $109 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $85 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$29 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $146 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $91 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $84 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $85 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $75 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $79 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $75 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $109 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $146 −$46 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $85 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $90 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$21 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $85 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $116 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $92 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $70 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$29 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $90 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 23% -9.4%
≤30d 231 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 23% -9.4%
≤90d 663 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 41% -9.7%
all 663 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 41% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 41% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 27% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 20% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 17% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.13 · official $63.75 (match) · 3500 history records