Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7457…1737 sports 36 markets active 2d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$12
tech 45% +$25
finance 4% −$7
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 60% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 60% -10.1%
≤90d 7 -6.3% -15.2% 57% 57% -13.6%
all 35 +5.3% -4.8% 69% 60% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 60% -8.1%
10% -13.9% 49% -16.9%
15% -22.2% 40% -24.9%
20% -29.8% 31% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage117d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $65 +$13 +20%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$12 +116%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $40 −$17 -42%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 16 $4 +$4 +108%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 15 $14 +$11 +79%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 14 $6 +$8 +133%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $11 +$3 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Feb 26 $3 +$2 +51%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $2 +$2 +117%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 24 $4 +$4 +95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 22 $2 +$1 +53%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +6%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $5 +$3 +64%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $3 +$1 +42%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 20 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 20 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 20 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 20 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $5 +$1 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 43h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $10 46h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 90¢ $10 46h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $65 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $0 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 66¢ $20 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $22 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 45¢ $10 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 82¢ $23 5d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 71¢ $20 6d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 13¢ $5 85d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 32¢ $5 85d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 86d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago BUY Nongshim RedForce 48¢ $4 92d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 56¢ $14 94d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof BUY Nongshim RedForce 43¢ $6 94d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff BUY All Gamers 20¢ $17 98d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 63¢ $6 98d
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $1 104d
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $2 104d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 40¢ $3 110d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 67¢ $3 110d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $5 110d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 66¢ $3 110d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Weibo Gaming 100¢ $4 111d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 54¢ $1 111d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 40¢ $1 111d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 43¢ $2 112d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 64¢ $2 112d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 49¢ $5 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.97 · official $71.97 (match) · 68 history records