Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7456…5148 sports 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,278 (-5%) realized −$3,278 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%91W / 161L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$1,544
other 40% −$3,321
politics 15% +$1,470
finance 1% +$125
crypto 0% −$120
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -56.3% -60.5% 0% 0% -60.5%
≤30d 15 -25.0% -32.1% 27% 27% -31.6%
≤90d 54 -25.4% -32.5% 31% 31% -27.1%
all 252 -16.5% -24.5% 36% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 34% -14.0%
10% -31.7% 29% -22.2%
15% -38.3% 27% -29.8%
20% -44.4% 25% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$163 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses91 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage440d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $51 −$29 -56%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) Jun 09 $257 −$252 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $263 −$257 -98%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $97 −$94 -98%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $102 +$255 +250%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $163 −$160 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $166 +$197 +119%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 07 $116 +$247 +212%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $143 −$95 -67%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $141 −$139 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $199 +$201 +101%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $80 −$79 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $209 −$206 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $90 −$88 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $146 −$144 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 25 $540 −$128 -24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $35 −$34 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $106 −$69 -65%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $109 −$107 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $80 +$135 +169%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $87 −$85 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $71 −$70 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $145 −$142 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $67 +$127 +188%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 24 $462 +$95 +21%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $152 +$120 +79%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $186 +$161 +87%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $105 +$80 +76%
VfB Stuttgart leading at halftime? May 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $51 +$100 +196%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $152 −$140 -92%
Will Barcelona win the 2025-26 UEFA Women's Champions League? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $163 −$160 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 23 $95 +$60 +64%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $94 −$89 -94%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $105 +$54 +51%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $153 +$226 +148%
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) May 22 $78 +$89 +114%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 19 $2 −$1 -42%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $143 −$140 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 16¢ $22 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 35¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 20¢ $1 19d
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (+1.5) BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 31¢ $256 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 20¢ $130 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 22¢ $54 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 23¢ $41 19d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 21¢ $38 19d
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY Top Esports Challenger 27¢ $45 19d
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY Top Esports Challenger 27¢ $51 19d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 23¢ $36 20d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 36¢ $61 20d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 38¢ $102 20d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 28¢ $102 20d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 45¢ $166 20d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 100¢ $363 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $23 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 26¢ $23 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 39¢ $20 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Karmine Corp 31¢ $21 20d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 30¢ $59 20d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 33¢ $57 20d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $143 21d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 31¢ $50 21d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 50¢ $91 21d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $400 21d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 49¢ $199 21d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 43¢ $80 22d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 24¢ $9 27d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 26¢ $60 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1007 history records