Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7453…810e politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% $0
other 19% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 10% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.5%
all 21 -0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage114d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $128 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $129 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $129 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $129 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $129 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $129 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $129 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $129 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $128 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $128 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $128 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $128 6d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $128 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $128 26d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $128 27d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 39d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 44d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $128 52d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $129 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $129 67d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $129 70d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $129 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $129 73d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $129 74d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $129 75d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $129 75d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $129 78d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $129 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records