Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7453…aee6 crypto 613 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized −$30 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate51%310W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$95
weather 27% −$246
other 7% −$306
world 4% +$173
sports 4% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 50% +24.4%
≤30d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 50% +10.5%
≤90d 611 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 36% -13.5%
all 611 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 36% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 36% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 26% -21.7%
15% -33.5% 19% -29.3%
20% -40.0% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses310 / 301
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)611 / 613
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 26¢ $85 $39 −$46 (-54%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$28 +69%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $115 +$114 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$46 -46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $102 +$103 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on April 25? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on April 25? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on April 25? Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 25? Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 27? Apr 25 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26? Apr 25 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26? Apr 25 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 25? Apr 25 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25? Apr 25 $3 +$2 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 25? Apr 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 26? Apr 25 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 25? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 25? Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $5 +$4 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 25? Apr 25 $6 +$5 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 25? Apr 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 25? Apr 25 $9 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 25? Apr 25 $16 +$14 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 25? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 25? Apr 25 $2 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 24 Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 24 Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 25? Apr 25 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 25? Apr 25 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 25? Apr 25 $3 +$3 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25? Apr 25 $2 +$3 +130%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 24? Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 24? Apr 25 $2 +$4 +184%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24? Apr 25 $11 $0 -4%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 24? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 24? Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 24? Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 24 $6 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 24m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 44m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $69 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $230 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $115 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 14d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 50¢ $205 15d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 15d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 51d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 27? SELL No 22¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 26? SELL No 76¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 51d
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 51d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 25? SELL No 69¢ $4 51d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 25? SELL No 100¢ $6 51d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 51d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26? SELL No 50¢ $12 51d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 26? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 51d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 51d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 51d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 51d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 26? BUY No 49¢ $3 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.52 · official $39.52 (match) · 3500 history records