Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

74 0x7452…74c1 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$6 (+5%) realized +$20 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+0.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+10.6%	+0.1%	60%	60%	+7.7%
≤30d	5	+10.6%	+0.1%	60%	60%	+7.7%
≤90d	5	+10.6%	+0.1%	60%	60%	+7.7%
all	5	+10.6%	+0.1%	60%	60%	+7.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.1%	60%	+7.7%
10%	-9.5%	60%	-2.6%
15%	-18.2%	40%	-12.0%
20%	-26.2%	40%	-20.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage3d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland leading at halftime?	Yes	47¢	22¢	$27	$13	−$14 (-52%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$22	+$6	+27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$26	−$5	-18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$4	+$3	+79%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$15	+$9	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	47¢	$27	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$28	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$22	2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	41¢	$21	2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$7	3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	SELL Aurora Gaming	100¢	$7	3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY Aurora Gaming	55¢	$4	12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$19	14h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Swi	BUY	2¢	$5	14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$24	15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$15	17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$1	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.63 · official $27.63 · 14 history records