Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7450…05ef politics 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$6
other 14% +$16
politics 9% +$18
culture 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 10% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -3.8% -13.0% 18% 9% -10.0%
all 45 +2.0% -7.7% 31% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 9% -7.7%
10% -16.5% 4% -16.6%
15% -24.6% 4% -24.6%
20% -32.0% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage307d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $45 −$2 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 −$2 -5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $77 −$14 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $3 $0 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $239 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $114 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $99 +$17 +17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $99 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 15 $25 +$16 +64%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $4 $0 +6%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $2 $0 -25%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $3 $0 -14%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $16 +$18 +114%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $4 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $3 $0 -1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 29 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 28 $4 −$1 -23%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $1 $0 +13%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $45 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $51 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $47 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $52 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $12 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $23 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 27¢ $46 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $55 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $112 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records