Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x744b…848e sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$248 (+1%) realized +$497 · open +$155
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%84W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$974now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$738
14 days+$637
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$842
other 6% −$132
crypto 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +17.5% +6.3% 61% 56% +24.1%
≤30d 40 +8.6% -1.8% 52% 50% -1.1%
≤90d 71 +6.7% -3.5% 51% 49% -6.2%
all 164 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 50% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 50% -6.7%
10% -13.1% 50% -15.6%
15% -21.5% 49% -23.7%
20% -29.2% 48% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$91 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$974
Realized+$497
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses84 / 80
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions6
Markets (closed)164 / 173
History coverage407d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 100¢ $149 $346 +$197 (+132%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 18¢ 45¢ $50 $125 +$75 (+150%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $170 $61 −$109 (-64%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$6 (+12%)
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Thunder 49¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 38¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 42¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Spurs 50¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 51¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Thunder 50¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 29¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 80¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ $169 $0 −$169 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 34¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 60¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Pistons 50¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 23¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Lakers 52¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 24¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 42¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 14¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $145 +$115 +79%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $150 +$134 +90%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $171 −$169 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $113 +$123 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $65 −$63 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $283 +$211 +75%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $41 +$31 +75%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $111 +$107 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $203 +$175 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $54 +$69 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $203 +$155 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$195 +191%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $296 −$293 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $241 +$192 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $212 +$143 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$56 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $402 −$400 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $160 +$149 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $48 −$47 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $181 +$127 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 214.5 May 24 $99 +$82 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $111 −$109 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 23 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $59 +$73 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $136 +$126 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $157 −$21 -14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 19 $149 −$147 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $175 −$172 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $150 +$124 +83%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $70 +$79 +113%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $26 +$71 +276%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 13 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 13 $96 +$80 +83%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $99 +$96 +97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $79 −$78 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 11 $92 +$86 +93%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 211.5 May 10 $47 +$46 +97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 29¢ $60 3h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 38¢ $56 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 48¢ $203 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $145 20h
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $150 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 23¢ $264 32h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $152 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $171 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 33¢ $122 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $65 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $113 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 56¢ $283 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 3d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $111 3d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $32 3d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $9 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $297 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 43¢ $54 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 6d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $296 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $973.61 · official $1,172.39 · 369 history records