Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7449…c05e
politics · 280 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$38 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses74 / 160
Open positions49
Markets (closed)234 / 280
History coverage4d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day851.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 49 History 234 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -4%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $310 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $400 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $463 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $113 +$2 +2%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +29%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +16%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% +$6
other 29% +$2
economics 8% $0
culture 7% −$1
world 5% +$4
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 0m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 0m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 0m
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2 0m
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $0 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 +1.7% -8.0% 32% 4% -9.5%
≤30d 234 +1.7% -8.0% 32% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 234 +1.7% -8.0% 32% 4% -9.5%
all 234 +1.7% -8.0% 32% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover851.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 4% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.64 · official $30.06 · 3500 history records