Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7447…a16d world 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$322,324 (+25%) realized +$341,888 · open −$19,564
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%27W / 152L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$12,190per market
Trades / day104.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$275,661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$448,435
other 2% −$4,347
politics 2% +$17,550
economics 2% −$7,024
finance 1% −$14,259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -14.6% -22.7% 9% 8% -52.4%
≤30d 174 -6.9% -15.7% 14% 10% +11.7%
≤90d 179 -5.0% -14.0% 15% 11% +11.9%
all 179 -5.0% -14.0% 15% 11% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 11% +11.9%
10% -22.2% 11% +1.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.8% 10% -8.6%
20% -36.6% 10% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$4,327) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24,955 vs −$3,303 · ×7.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$275,661
Realized+$341,888
Unrealized−$19,564
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses27 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Open positions57
Markets (closed)179 / 106
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$12,190
Trades / day104.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $49,414 $55,264 +$5,850 (+12%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $36,780 $37,029 +$249 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 66¢ $31,517 $32,145 +$628 (+2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 24¢ 17¢ $23,082 $16,058 −$7,024 (-30%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 59¢ 78¢ $11,189 $14,847 +$3,658 (+33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 69¢ 70¢ $12,750 $12,944 +$194 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 80¢ 93¢ $9,942 $11,559 +$1,617 (+16%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10,464 $10,641 +$178 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 96¢ 98¢ $9,901 $10,056 +$155 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $6,199 $6,340 +$141 (+2%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 90¢ 98¢ $5,770 $6,281 +$512 (+9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $5,243 $6,271 +$1,028 (+20%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $5,758 $6,010 +$252 (+4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 No 45¢ 51¢ $5,250 $5,957 +$707 (+13%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,579 $5,666 +$87 (+2%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 90¢ 96¢ $4,982 $5,315 +$332 (+7%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $4,910 $4,842 −$67 (-1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $4,263 $3,593 −$671 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,280 $3,309 +$28 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $20,230 $3,189 −$17,040 (-84%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $3,275 $2,944 −$331 (-10%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $2,739 $2,915 +$176 (+6%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,438 $2,545 +$108 (+4%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $3,750 $1,873 −$1,877 (-50%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 11¢ 12¢ $1,261 $1,296 +$35 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 28 $4,327 −$4,327 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Jun 28 $757 −$757 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 28 $860 −$730 -85%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jun 28 $841 −$841 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen 4 or more times by September 30? Jun 28 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January? Jun 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 28 $2,259 −$2,259 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 28 $600 −$600 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 28 $4,284 −$5,529 -129%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Jun 28 $4,471 −$4,471 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 28 $3,765 −$4,621 -123%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Jun 28 $15 −$87 -592%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Jun 28 $5,868 −$5,868 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 28 $5,641 −$8,998 -160%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Jun 28 $1,458 −$2,281 -156%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Jun 28 $646 −$646 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Jun 28 $34,065 −$36,161 -106%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 28 $368 −$368 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24? Jun 28 $937 −$937 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 28 $601 +$5,601 +932%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 28 $830 −$1,879 -226%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Jun 28 $3,161 −$3,310 -105%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 28 $507 +$4,393 +867%
Will Israel strike Yemen on October 1 ET? Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 28 $11,795 −$11,795 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 28 $504 −$724 -144%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Jun 28 $5,876 −$5,876 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 28 $117 −$440 -375%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 28 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Jun 28 $112 −$35 -32%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 28 $398 −$548 -138%
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Jun 28 $81 −$81 -100%
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academ Jun 28 $114 −$114 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Jun 28 $70 +$456 +656%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 28 $2,154 −$2,154 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? Jun 28 $671 −$671 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January? Jun 28 $2,749 −$2,749 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 28 $2,005 +$17,051 +851%
Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET? Jun 28 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 28 $238 −$4,886 -2053%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Jun 28 $8,750 −$8,750 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Jun 28 $8,440 −$8,440 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 23? Jun 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Jun 28 $1 −$65 -6057%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $7 28m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $0 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $1 30m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $42 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $3,238 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $948 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $911 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $13 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $62 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $0 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6,178 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $35 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $350 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $281 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $1,370 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275,660.77 · official $275,616.33 (match) · 3500 history records