Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7446…b910 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%40W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
other 14% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 9% $0
weather 6% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
world 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 -1.8% -11.2% 80% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses40 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage501d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 02 $4 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $8 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $39 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 03 $8 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Feb 15 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $23 182d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $32 212d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 241d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 242d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 302d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $35 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 333d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $33 334d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 362d
Will Solana reach $200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $4 367d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.94 · official $42.94 (match) · 104 history records