Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x7446…54f2 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$554 (+46%) realized +$561 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$343
7 days+$481
14 days+$549
30 days+$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$470
sports 24% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +44.7% +30.9% 62% 62% +63.6%
≤30d 20 +59.1% +43.9% 65% 65% +68.5%
≤90d 20 +59.1% +43.9% 65% 65% +68.5%
all 20 +59.1% +43.9% 65% 65% +68.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.9% 65% +68.5%
10% +30.1% 65% +52.3%
15% +17.6% 65% +37.6%
20% +6.0% 60% +24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$8 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.54 per $1 lost it wins $10.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$561
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage10d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $204 $203 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $153 $152 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $51 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 +$52 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 +$56 +55%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $207 +$256 +124%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +188%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$24 +230%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$41 +99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$61 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$52 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $155 59m
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $206 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $104 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $103 26h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $207 44h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.17 · official $554.17 (match) · 46 history records