Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x7444…ff1b other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%39W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$33
14 days+$31
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$2
politics 43% −$7
sports 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -12.7% -21.0% 61% 48% -5.4%
≤30d 65 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 51% -9.2%
≤90d 65 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 51% -9.2%
all 65 -10.5% -19.0% 60% 51% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 51% -9.2%
10% -26.7% 38% -17.9%
15% -33.8% 37% -25.8%
20% -40.3% 25% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses39 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage74d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $158 +$8 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$2 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$3 +36%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $53 +$5 +8%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 +$2 +18%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$7 +154%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $131 +$22 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$12 +111%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +70%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $140 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.29 · official $102.29 (match) · 161 history records