Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x7443…1950 other 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-7%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.1% -18.7% 75% 50% +3.4%
≤30d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 60% +3.8%
≤90d 5 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 60% +3.8%
all 5 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 60% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 60% +3.8%
10% -22.0% 40% -6.1%
15% -29.5% 0% -15.2%
20% -36.5% 0% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$33 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 −$33 -35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$6 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $18 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 7¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $25 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 46¢ $26 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $31 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $31 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 59¢ $36 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 71¢ $36 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $18 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records