Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7442…470c crypto 104 markets active 2d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-11%) realized −$24 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%53W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$29
other 5% +$9
politics 3% −$7
world 1% −$1
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -43.8%
≤30d 3 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 33% -43.8%
≤90d 102 -23.4% -30.7% 52% 30% -21.8%
all 102 -23.4% -30.7% 52% 30% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 30% -21.8%
10% -37.3% 16% -29.3%
15% -43.4% 11% -36.1%
20% -49.0% 7% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses53 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 17 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Trump say "Caravan" this week? (April 5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$6 +569%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$4 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $2 −$1 -49%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 02 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 02 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 35d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35d
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji BUY Yes 11¢ $1 35d
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 35d
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 76d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 76d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 76d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 76d
Will Trump say "Caravan" this week? (April 5) BUY Yes 6¢ $1 76d
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5) BUY Yes 6¢ $1 76d
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) BUY Yes 8¢ $1 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.19 · official $8.19 (match) · 310 history records