Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7441…0ba8 crypto 274 markets active 4h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-6%) realized −$87 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%164W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$98
sports 6% +$2
other 4% −$5
world 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 36% -9.7%
≤30d 56 -17.2% -25.1% 68% 36% -9.7%
≤90d 78 -29.1% -35.8% 55% 31% -34.2%
all 261 -12.5% -20.9% 63% 36% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 36% -15.5%
10% -28.4% 25% -23.6%
15% -35.3% 16% -31.0%
20% -41.7% 10% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses164 / 97
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)261 / 274
History coverage109d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 87¢ 68¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 85¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 82¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 69¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Portugal 84¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $1 $0 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4h
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 72¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 4h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $1 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $10 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Portugal 84¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $1 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.22 · official $26.60 (match) · 784 history records