Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x743f…420c crypto 1282 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$540 (+2%) realized +$540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate80%1169W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day134.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,213
7 days−$1,201
14 days−$1,184
30 days−$1,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -46.7% -51.8% 51% 3% -52.6%
≤30d 1454 -12.8% -21.1% 80% 7% -13.6%
≤90d 1454 -12.8% -21.1% 80% 7% -13.6%
all 1454 -12.8% -21.1% 80% 7% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 7% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 4% -21.9%
15% -35.5% 2% -29.4%
20% -41.9% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1169 / 285
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1454 / 1282
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day134.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1454 Trades
no open positions (235 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$6 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records