Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x743d…f77e other 553 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$762 (-0%) realized −$888 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate84%432W / 80L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$14,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$52
14 days+$439
30 days+$2,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$191
world 22% +$244
sports 11% −$1,419
finance 8% +$785
politics 6% +$693
economics 4% +$208
tech 3% −$1,811
culture 1% +$269
crypto 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 12% -11.4%
≤30d 83 +2.4% -7.4% 84% 30% -3.3%
≤90d 297 -1.8% -11.1% 81% 32% -9.7%
all 512 +0.2% -9.3% 84% 27% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 27% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 12% -18.7%
15% -25.9% 7% -26.5%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$236 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$14,350
Realized−$888
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses432 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions41
Markets (closed)512 / 553
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$413
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $3,792 $3,959 +$167 (+4%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $938 $942 +$4 (+0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $890 $886 −$4 (-0%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $829 $833 +$3 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 96¢ $812 $812 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 82¢ 98¢ $596 $713 +$117 (+20%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $669 $644 −$25 (-4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $575 $593 +$18 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 98¢ $481 $545 +$63 (+13%)
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $506 $529 +$23 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $376 $396 +$20 (+5%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $282 $296 +$15 (+5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $276 $274 −$2 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 86¢ 97¢ $215 $244 +$29 (+13%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 96¢ $225 $227 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 93¢ 98¢ $195 $207 +$12 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $187 $205 +$18 (+10%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $201 $202 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $145 $200 +$55 (+38%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $195 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 73¢ 77¢ $162 $170 +$8 (+5%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 64¢ $183 $161 −$22 (-12%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $92 $139 +$46 (+50%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $363 +$21 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $175 +$22 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 12 $675 +$56 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $492 −$66 -14%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $353 +$26 +7%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $306 −$9 -3%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 09 $110 −$103 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $138 −$136 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $96 −$96 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 06 $3,593 +$269 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 06 $545 +$19 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $58 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $428 +$28 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $159 −$152 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $133 +$16 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $69 −$49 -71%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 03 $2,641 +$472 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $102 +$53 +52%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $310 +$27 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 02 $678 +$27 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 01 $302 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 01 $289 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $879 +$204 +23%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 31 $498 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $584 +$68 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? May 31 $123 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $281 −$85 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 31 $188 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 31 $295 +$23 +8%
Will MrBeast say "World Cup" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $42 +$19 +45%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $1,572 +$66 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $505 +$44 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $861 +$34 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 30 $690 +$72 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May? May 30 $414 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $268 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $52 +$6 +12%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 30 $172 +$23 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $44 +$37 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,376 +$214 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $806 +$118 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $1,431 +$121 +8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 29 $422 +$23 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $611 +$87 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $67 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $24 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $277 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $76 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $231 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $116 2d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $209 2d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $77 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $413 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $63 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL No 21¢ $45 5d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $15 5d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $282 5d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $148 5d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $148 5d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $284 6d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $201 6d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $4 6d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 85¢ $100 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 67¢ $68 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 66¢ $33 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 69¢ $70 7d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $65 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,349.80 · official $14,350.26 (match) · 3494 history records