Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x743c…5535 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$91
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$108
sports 8% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 37% -11.5%
≤30d 37 +6.0% -4.1% 54% 43% -10.5%
≤90d 37 +6.0% -4.1% 54% 43% -10.5%
all 40 +5.7% -4.4% 55% 42% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 42% -10.6%
10% -13.6% 38% -19.1%
15% -21.9% 32% -26.9%
20% -29.6% 25% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$37 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage191d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 82¢ $55 $82 +$27 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $501 +$28 +6%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$34 -66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$38 -38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$36 +354%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $500 +$14 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$32 -32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $251 +$40 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $551 +$22 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $541 +$46 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$27 -53%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$330 -65%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 −$67 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 +$18 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$14 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$13 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $10 −$5 -52%
FIFA Intercontinental Cup: PSG vs. Flamengo - Winner Dec 18 $1 $0 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $63 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $514 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $68 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $251 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $573 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $551 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $541 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.50 · official $82.50 (match) · 81 history records