Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x743c…c386 sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-7%) realized −$103 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$83
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$86
other 15% −$20
crypto 2% −$13
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +11.6% +1.0% 55% 48% +1.5%
≤30d 50 -4.8% -13.8% 48% 44% -12.5%
≤90d 69 -19.5% -27.2% 41% 38% -16.8%
all 69 -19.5% -27.2% 41% 38% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 38% -16.8%
10% -34.1% 35% -24.8%
15% -40.5% 33% -32.1%
20% -46.3% 33% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage54d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $86 +$6 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$1 -6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $61 +$49 +80%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$17 +56%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$26 +129%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $30 +$4 +15%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$15 +76%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $20 +$32 +159%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$11 -54%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$9 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $15 +$15 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $23 +$3 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $56 −$55 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $50 +$55 +109%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: US Lecce (-1.5) May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 23 $15 +$17 +114%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $41 +$36 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 56¢ $93 17m
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 41¢ $36 1h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 61¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $61 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $14 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $15 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $61 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 97¢ $110 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 53¢ $61 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 50¢ $48 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $31 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $20 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 69¢ $35 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $36 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 59¢ $30 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $20 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv SELL Maccabi Tel-Aviv 100¢ $53 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 38¢ $20 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 41¢ $20 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 35¢ $16 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $15 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.00 · official $58.00 (match) · 114 history records