Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x743b…6e96 world 36 markets active 13d ago coverage 445d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
other 39% +$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

445d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage445d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +3%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $7 −$2 -22%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $27 $0 -1%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 01 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 12d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $12 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $16 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $7 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $21 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $13 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $15 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $27 14d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 14d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 14d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 15d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 15d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $10 15d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 16d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $27 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $29 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $29 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records