Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7437…e096 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-8%) realized −$97 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%41W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$73
other 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -8.1% -16.9% 71% 52% -14.3%
≤30d 58 -8.1% -16.9% 71% 52% -14.3%
≤90d 58 -8.1% -16.9% 71% 52% -14.3%
all 58 -8.1% -16.9% 71% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 52% -14.3%
10% -24.8% 26% -22.5%
15% -32.1% 16% -30.0%
20% -38.8% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses41 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 78¢ 50¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$17 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$18 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$20 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.88 · official $90.88 (match) · 118 history records