Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7436…b993 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 17% −$21
sports 13% +$13
economics 5% $0
weather 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 29% -4.0%
≤30d 31 +34.4% +21.6% 32% 13% -8.8%
≤90d 71 +13.8% +2.9% 31% 6% -9.5%
all 87 +11.1% +0.5% 34% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 6% -10.0%
10% -9.1% 3% -18.6%
15% -17.9% 3% -26.5%
20% -25.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage536d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $59 +$11 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 −$2 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $27 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $29 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $59 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $16 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $53 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $26 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $26 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $27 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $24 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $61 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $59 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $36 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $4 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $3 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $8 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $35 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $17 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $19 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 58¢ $0 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $17 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $12 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $9 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $26 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $21 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $9 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.55 · official $33.84 · 322 history records