Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x742e…99b2 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$151 (+5%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$299
7 days−$311
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$272
other 42% −$488
world 4% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -15.8% -23.8% 27% 27% -20.4%
≤30d 73 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 26% -11.1%
≤90d 73 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 26% -11.1%
all 73 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 26% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 26% -11.1%
10% -19.3% 26% -19.6%
15% -27.1% 23% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 22% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$28 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage9d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $112 −$110 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +120%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $512 +$137 +27%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$43 +210%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $123 +$272 +222%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $113 +$132 +117%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $121 −$4 -3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$77 +374%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$10 -49%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $73 −$61 -84%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +233%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$49 -80%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $23 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $649 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $39 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $395 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $225 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $20 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $117 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $121 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 30h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 33h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records