Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x742d…100e crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-8%) realized −$46 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$25
crypto 27% −$4
other 21% −$13
tech 9% +$2
politics 6% $0
sports 5% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 3 +5.9% -4.2% 67% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 5 -16.4% -24.3% 60% 20% -17.5%
all 29 -17.8% -25.6% 48% 28% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 28% -21.9%
10% -32.7% 17% -29.4%
15% -39.2% 10% -36.2%
20% -45.2% 10% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)29 / 40
History coverage557d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $107 $111 +$4 (+4%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 81¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? No $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 21¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$4 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Mar 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Mar 13 $42 +$6 +14%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 06 $32 −$30 -95%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelensk Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Feb 28 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Feb 21 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 11 $1 +$7 +576%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech Jan 25 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 25 $0 $0 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -45%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $1 $0 +29%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 18 $1 $0 +23%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No $1 0m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No $1 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No $1 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 21¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 19¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 15¢ $1 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 17¢ $1 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 22¢ $1 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $54 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 92¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 92¢ $5 6d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $19 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $12 17d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 24d
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 24d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $49 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.12 · official $245.93 (match) · 94 history records