Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x742d…7d5e other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$112 (-0%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$32
sports 25% −$19
politics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
world 6% −$55
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 252
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage134d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $175 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $398 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $382 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $242 −$2 -1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $352 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $124 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 12m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $25 3h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $25 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $25 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $25 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 14h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $25 16h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $26 18h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 19h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 21h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $26 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 23h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $26 25h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $26 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $26 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $26 33h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 34h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 35h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 38h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 39h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $26 43h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $26 45h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $26 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1460 history records