Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x742c…25ac
other · 84 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$11 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage481d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $82 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,985 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $86 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $174 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $86 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $176 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $167 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $102 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $174 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $86 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $166 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $83 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $82 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $163 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $161 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $62 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $164 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $82 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $984 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $1,046 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $952 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $951 +$3 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $1,047 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 20 $5 $0 -10%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross more than $75m May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 15 $4 $0 +5%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$2
other 22% −$2
politics 10% $0
sports 9% +$13
economics 8% −$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $84 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $82 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $77 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $5 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $78 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $42 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $41 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $61 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $21 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $42 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $16 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $15 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $74 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $84 38h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $84 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $79 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $7 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $77 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $77 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $9 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $85 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $85 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $71 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 36 +0.1% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.5%
all 83 -0.0% -9.6% 42% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records