Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x742a…5e92 crypto 210 markets active 10h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%125W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -5.0% -14.0% 60% 59% -10.6%
≤30d 210 -5.0% -14.0% 60% 59% -10.6%
≤90d 210 -5.0% -14.0% 60% 59% -10.6%
all 210 -5.0% -14.0% 60% 59% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 59% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 59% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 20% -27.0%
20% -36.6% 17% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses125 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (85 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 380 history records