Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
74 0x7429…28b4 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$844 (+22%) realized +$802 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$81
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$589
other 12% +$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤90d 18 +16.1% +5.0% 67% 67% +17.4%
all 19 +15.1% +4.1% 63% 63% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 63% +12.1%
10% -5.8% 63% +1.4%
15% -14.9% 63% -8.4%
20% -23.3% 26% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$55 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized+$802
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage91d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Under 52¢ 58¢ $272 $306 +$34 (+13%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Under 56¢ 57¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners Over 66¢ 72¢ $66 $72 +$6 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 22 $81 −$81 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $118 +$70 +60%
Qingdao Hainiu FC leading at halftime? May 20 $333 +$144 +43%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolai Budkov Kja Apr 27 $143 −$143 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 27 $65 −$8 -12%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Apr 23 $49 +$20 +42%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur Apr 19 $425 +$303 +71%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Apr 19 $49 +$19 +40%
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Apr 19 $69 +$30 +44%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 17 $135 +$51 +38%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Apr 15 $407 −$77 -19%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe Apr 15 $294 +$136 +46%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 14 $80 +$66 +83%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 14 $145 +$173 +119%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 14 $182 +$65 +36%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $110 +$110 +100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Magda Linette vs McCartney Kessler Mar 30 $600 −$16 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $100 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $276 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $67 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 81¢ $81 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 62¢ $118 7d
Qingdao Hainiu FC leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $333 42d
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League BUY Marsborne 57¢ $24 64d
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League BUY Marsborne 56¢ $14 64d
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League BUY Marsborne 56¢ $14 64d
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League BUY Marsborne 54¢ $14 64d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 100¢ $728 69d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 57¢ $187 70d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 59¢ $12 70d
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 58¢ $226 70d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $11 74d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $50 74d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $49 74d
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $49 74d
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $69 74d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe SELL ALKA 100¢ $430 74d
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Fake do Biru 61¢ $404 75d
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America BUY Fake do Biru 60¢ $3 75d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe BUY ALKA 69¢ $200 75d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe BUY ALKA 68¢ $65 75d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe BUY ALKA 59¢ $29 75d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 72¢ $135 77d
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $80 77d
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolai Budkov Kja BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 33¢ $83 78d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Nuggets 45¢ $145 78d
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Nicolai Budkov Kja BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 34¢ $2 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.75 · official $478.77 (match) · 53 history records