Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x7426…7b6d other 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,602 (+6%) realized +$1,441 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate59%80W / 55L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$468
14 days+$623
30 days−$1,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$3,123
sports 9% +$125
weather 7% −$1,742
world 7% +$131
finance 5% +$51
crypto 3% −$199
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.1% -4.0% 83% 25% -6.0%
≤30d 73 +18.3% +7.0% 68% 26% -14.0%
≤90d 108 +27.6% +15.5% 62% 31% -3.8%
all 135 +20.9% +9.4% 59% 31% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 31% -5.0%
10% -1.1% 20% -14.1%
15% -10.6% 16% -22.4%
20% -19.4% 13% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$63 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,640
Realized+$1,441
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses80 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)135 / 145
History coverage112d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2? No 89¢ 99¢ $676 $750 +$74 (+11%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 8 million views on day 1? No 91¢ 77¢ $646 $546 −$101 (-16%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1? No 55¢ 88¢ $88 $141 +$53 (+60%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? No 95¢ 100¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+5%)
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 61¢ 72¢ $77 $90 +$13 (+17%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 14 and 16 million views on day 1? Yes 7¢ 24¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+243%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 16 and 18 million views on day 1? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+212%)
Will Hugo Cuypers win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? Yes 1¢ 20¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1339%)
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 12 and 14 million views on day 1? Yes 6¢ 22¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+258%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? No 9¢ 0¢ $1,317 $0 −$1,317 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $183 +$50 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $43 +$11 +25%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $319 −$12 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 14 $73 +$4 +6%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $243 +$7 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $258 +$4 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $183 +$6 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $677 +$10 +1%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,510 +$51 +3%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $2,185 +$4 +0%
Will Emiliano Buendía score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 +$15 +112%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $361 +$4 +1%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 11 $574 +$6 +1%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $155 +$33 +21%
Exact Score: Angola 1 - 0 Central African Republic? Jun 09 $283 +$56 +20%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 09 $311 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $2,228 +$80 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2,096 +$131 +6%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 07 $147 +$29 +20%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Aruba leading at halftime? Jun 07 $221 +$29 +13%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $0 $0 -61%
Will MrBeast say "Fight" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $150 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 06 $199 +$3 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $468 +$114 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $1,107 +$13 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 04 $48 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $330 +$9 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $37 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $704 +$10 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $201 −$155 -77%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 52 million views on day 4? Jun 02 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$99 +9252%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -45%
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $1,799 +$44 +2%
between 39 and 41 million views Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
between 37 and 39 million view Jun 01 $16 +$2 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $156 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $84 −$83 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $285 −$285 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 8 million views on day BUY No 92¢ $46 26m
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 46m
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 1h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 1h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 1h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 2h
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 2h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 12 and 14 million views o BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 BUY No 89¢ $676 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL No 79¢ $16 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY No 76¢ $15 8h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 8 million views on day SELL No 95¢ $10 12h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 16 and 18 million views o BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 SELL Yes 8¢ $0 12h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY No 60¢ $23 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY No 60¢ $23 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY No 60¢ $23 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY No 42¢ $13 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY No 42¢ $8 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY Yes 74¢ $4 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 14 and 16 million views o BUY Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 77¢ $95 20h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 90¢ $72 20h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 88¢ $22 21h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 95¢ $19 21h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 95¢ $19 21h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 95¢ $51 21h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL No 95¢ $28 21h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $319 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,640.46 · official $1,640.46 (match) · 816 history records