Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:12:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7425…701a crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$97 (+1%) realized +$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate100%39W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$69
14 days+$71
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$29
other 1% +$66
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.2% +1.5% 100% 33% -5.9%
≤30d 17 +4.4% -5.6% 100% 12% -8.5%
≤90d 39 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 5% -8.9%
all 39 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 5% -8.9%
10% -16.5% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses39 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage60d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 29 $36 +$7 +19%
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 27 $110 +$60 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $493 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $493 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $490 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $490 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $490 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $489 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $489 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $487 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $486 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $487 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $486 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $479 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $485 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $479 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $280 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $482 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $478 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $380 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $438 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $471 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $471 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $468 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $469 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $466 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? May 04 $466 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 01 $464 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $461 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 95¢ $42 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 80¢ $24 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 80¢ $12 2d
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $110 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $466 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $493 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $490 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $400 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $91 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $490 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $490 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $489 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $489 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $487 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $486 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $487 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $486 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $479 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $485 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $17 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $462 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $280 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $199 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $482 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $135 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $44 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $299 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records