Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7422…26aa crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-5%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%93W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$156
other 11% −$2
world 2% −$10
finance 1% −$5
weather 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 38% -20.4%
≤30d 8 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 38% -20.4%
≤90d 180 -20.9% -28.5% 38% 30% -16.1%
all 209 -14.0% -22.2% 44% 34% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 34% -16.0%
10% -29.6% 24% -24.0%
15% -36.4% 16% -31.3%
20% -42.7% 14% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 116
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage105d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $8 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 18 $19 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on May 15? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on May 15? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,340 on May 12, 9PM ET? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,235 on May 12, 9PM ET? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,210 on May 12, 8PM ET? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,225 on May 12, 8PM ET? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,205 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,235 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,340 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,355 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,220 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,325 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,310 on May 12, 12PM ET? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,370 on May 12, 7AM ET? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum above 2,355 on May 12, 7AM ET? May 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Ethereum above 2,245 on May 12, 6AM ET? May 12 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum above 2,230 on May 12, 6AM ET? May 12 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum above 2,215 on May 12, 6AM ET? May 12 $5 −$2 -50%
Ethereum above 2,275 on May 11, 11PM ET? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum above 2,230 on May 11, 11PM ET? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum above 2,245 on May 11, 11PM ET? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum above 2,260 on May 11, 11PM ET? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum above 2,260 on May 11, 10PM ET? May 12 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 11? May 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 11 $3 −$2 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 08 $18 −$17 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 04 $17 +$22 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 03 $21 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 03 $20 +$7 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 03 $52 +$19 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $29 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $32 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $25 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $21 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $19 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 34d
Ethereum above 2,370 on May 12, 7AM ET? SELL No 2¢ $0 39d
Ethereum above 2,355 on May 12, 7AM ET? SELL No 2¢ $0 39d
Ethereum above 2,245 on May 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 39d
Ethereum above 2,230 on May 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 39d
Ethereum above 2,215 on May 12, 6AM ET? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 39d
Ethereum above 2,275 on May 11, 11PM ET? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 40d
Ethereum above 2,230 on May 11, 11PM ET? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 40d
Ethereum above 2,245 on May 11, 11PM ET? SELL No 0¢ $0 40d
Ethereum above 2,275 on May 11, 11PM ET? SELL No 0¢ $0 40d
Ethereum above 2,260 on May 11, 11PM ET? SELL No 0¢ $0 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records