Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7420…c1f6 crypto 291 markets active 22h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,865 (-13%) realized −$1,865 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%161W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$63
14 days−$144
30 days−$1,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,955
finance 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -3.8% -12.9% 42% 38% -16.5%
≤30d 230 +15.7% +4.7% 45% 37% -24.2%
≤90d 291 +19.8% +8.4% 55% 32% -22.2%
all 291 +19.8% +8.4% 55% 32% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 32% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 22% -29.6%
15% -11.5% 19% -36.4%
20% -20.2% 16% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,865
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses161 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)291 / 291
History coverage68d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 291 Trades
no open positions (125 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? Jun 16 $16 +$24 +154%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 8AM ET? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? Jun 13 $23 +$37 +158%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 13, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 11PM ET? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 9PM ET? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 8AM ET? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 12, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +490%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 12, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $15 +$30 +202%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 2AM ET? Jun 12 $26 +$39 +150%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 1AM ET? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 11, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 10PM ET? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 7PM ET? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 6PM ET? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 11, 6PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 4PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $15 +$32 +207%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $18 +$27 +144%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 9AM ET? Jun 11 $7 +$41 +632%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 11, 8AM ET? Jun 11 $11 +$15 +138%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 6AM ET? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1AM ET? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 11PM ET? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 10PM ET? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 10PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +29%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 10, 9PM ET? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 8PM ET? Jun 11 $17 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 7PM ET? Jun 10 $41 +$4 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 +$16 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 6PM ET? Jun 10 $4 +$7 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY No 35¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY No 45¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin above 66,600 on June 16, 9AM ET? BUY No 35¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 16, 8AM ET? BUY No 53¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? BUY No 25¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? BUY No 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? BUY No 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? BUY No 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? BUY No 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 13, 1PM ET? BUY No 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 40¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 34¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? BUY No 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 13, 4AM ET? BUY No 44¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 13, 4AM ET? BUY No 45¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 13, 4AM ET? BUY No 45¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 11PM ET? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 12, 11PM ET? BUY No 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 9PM ET? BUY No 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 9PM ET? BUY No 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 9PM ET? BUY No 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 9PM ET? BUY No 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 10AM ET? BUY No 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 12, 9AM ET? BUY No 21¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1832 history records