Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7420…7835
crypto · 2044 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$1,112 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,120 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$1,120
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1000 / 676
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1676 / 2044
History coverage38d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1676 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,414
7 days−$1,034
14 days+$18
30 days+$1,264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 49¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$9 -344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$13 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$2,534
politics 2% +$20
other 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 40% -43.8%
≤30d 1303 +26.7% +14.6% 63% 63% +4.7%
≤90d 1676 +19.4% +8.1% 60% 60% +0.1%
all 1676 +19.4% +8.1% 60% 60% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 60% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here -2.3% 60% -9.4%
15% -11.7% 60% -18.2%
20% -20.4% 60% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.08 · official $3.96 (match) · 3500 history records