Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x741e…9014 sports 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$835 (+9%) realized +$890 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%136W / 156L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$74
14 days+$2
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$130
other 14% −$47
politics 4% +$18
economics 1% +$20
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.9% -39.3% 29% 29% -40.7%
≤30d 19 +27.1% +15.0% 47% 47% -1.5%
≤90d 24 +29.7% +17.4% 46% 46% +3.7%
all 292 +8.8% -1.5% 47% 40% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 40% -6.8%
10% -10.9% 38% -15.8%
15% -19.5% 37% -23.9%
20% -27.4% 35% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$890
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses136 / 156
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)292 / 296
History coverage167d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $32 +$10 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-20%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $74 +$40 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$48 +100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $14 +$86 +614%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $40 +$60 +150%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 31 $23 +$17 +75%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kia Tigers May 31 $22 +$18 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $24 +$16 +65%
Will Kerala Blasters FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $20 +$42 +206%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $20 +$50 +244%
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $14 −$1 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Mar 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Mili Poljicak Mar 18 $11 +$9 +82%
Miami Open, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith Mar 18 $10 +$10 +92%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs MASONIC (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Mar 18 $12 +$8 +61%
Miami Open: Magda Linette vs Varvara Gracheva Mar 18 $11 +$9 +82%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals Mar 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Mar 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Zadar: Laurent Lokoli vs Matej Dodig Mar 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lanlana Tararudee Mar 17 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $14 −$1 -7%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $12 +$8 +72%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO1) - ANZC Locals Brisbane: G Mar 16 $12 +$8 +64%
Murcia: Edas Butvilas vs Mikhail Kukushkin Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 16 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 08 $17 +$28 +165%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $109 +$2 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner Mar 05 $17 −$7 -41%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Mar 05 $20 +$16 +76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Mar 05 $10 −$2 -25%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner Mar 03 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Drexel Dragons Mar 03 $10 +$10 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 55¢ $56 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 46¢ $14 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $15 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $4 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 21h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 6d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $26 6d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $16 6d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 7d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 8d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 8d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.57 · official $127.66 (match) · 2151 history records