Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x741e…9b87 other 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 959d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,144 (-2%) realized −$1,149 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate51%110W / 104L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$183
14 days−$142
30 days−$729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$304
other 22% −$278
crypto 15% +$65
finance 15% −$161
sports 14% −$382
tech 6% −$114
politics 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 28 -6.9% -15.7% 57% 0% -14.2%
≤90d 100 -11.9% -20.3% 46% 13% -12.6%
all 214 -11.6% -20.0% 51% 17% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 17% -11.7%
10% -27.6% 12% -20.2%
15% -34.6% 9% -27.9%
20% -41.0% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

959d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$1,149
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses110 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)214 / 216
History coverage959d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $195 $197 +$3 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $117 $120 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $303 +$15 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$4 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $177 +$5 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $104 −$12 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $110 −$11 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $873 +$25 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $590 −$60 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,068 −$144 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? Jun 09 $492 +$10 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $583 +$17 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $267 +$14 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $94 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $289 +$10 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $396 −$73 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $34 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $39 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $116 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $170 −$145 -85%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 23 $132 −$70 -53%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $2,809 −$200 -7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 23 $2,359 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $2,487 −$112 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $1,149 +$12 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 20 $812 −$12 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $5 $0 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $16 −$6 -41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $508 −$4 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $300 $0 -0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $350 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 15 $714 −$1 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Suplex Team vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBo May 15 $600 −$1 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $600 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14? May 15 $553 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? May 13 $306 −$3 -1%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $455 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 23 $8 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 29m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 30m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 50m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 9h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $113 9h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 10h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 93¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $280 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $61 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 46h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $124 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 59¢ $34 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $182 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 66¢ $38 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $159 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $162 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 50¢ $100 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 46¢ $73 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 46¢ $3 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 46¢ $6 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 46¢ $11 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 52¢ $99 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 58¢ $110 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.93 · official $316.93 (match) · 1395 history records