Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x741e…8e16 world 76 markets active 15h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%27W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$8
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$23
politics 20% −$19
other 18% +$14
sports 18% −$11
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.0% -16.7% 0% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 22 -3.1% -12.3% 36% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 65 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 2% -10.5%
all 72 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -10.9%
10% -18.7% 3% -19.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses27 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage528d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $23 −$5 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $22 −$3 -15%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $25 −$3 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $58 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $59 −$8 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $101 −$3 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? May 18 $40 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $85 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $14 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $9 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $21 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $22 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $0.00 · 323 history records