Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x741d…88ba world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,430 (-29%) realized −$7,344 · open −$86
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$4,907
economics 19% −$27
politics 11% −$147
world 3% −$164
other 1% −$19
finance 0% −$49
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -59.1% -63.0% 10% 10% -16.9%
≤90d 21 -24.0% -31.2% 48% 14% -13.6%
all 42 -30.1% -36.7% 48% 14% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 14% -35.0%
10% -42.8% 7% -41.2%
15% -48.3% 5% -46.9%
20% -53.4% 5% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$319 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$7,344
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage240d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 90¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 16¢ $102 $26 −$76 (-74%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 72¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 06 $24 −$23 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 06 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 04 $170 −$3 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $832 −$25 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 28 $18 +$2 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 13 $19 +$1 +5%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Apr 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 2 Apr 24 $71 −$4 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $197 +$10 +5%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $253 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 23 $21 $0 -2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 23 $28 +$2 +9%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 23 $28 +$2 +6%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 23 $26 +$14 +52%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 25 $5 +$5 +85%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 25 $10 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 25 $30 $0 +2%
Kings vs. Rockets Mar 25 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Feb 25 $10 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $175 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 08 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Magic vs. Jazz Dec 20 $980 −$980 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Nov 29 $1,386 +$22 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $149 −$149 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $6,000 −$3,000 -50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $5,000 +$1,400 +28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $995 +$5 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $3,952 −$32 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 27 $2,000 −$14 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $104 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 96¢ $29 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 78¢ $24 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 59¢ $24 17d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 97¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $27 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? SELL No 82¢ $5 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 36¢ $36 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 34¢ $12 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 34¢ $30 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 34¢ $26 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? SELL No 82¢ $164 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 32¢ $33 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 32¢ $33 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $80 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 80¢ $80 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $60 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $16 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $1 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $71 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $3 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $77 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $77 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $5 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 77¢ $72 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $74 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $78 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 80¢ $80 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.60 · official $154.60 (match) · 247 history records