Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x741a…b692 sports 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$386 (+2%) realized +$389 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%231W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$312
14 days−$1,059
30 days+$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$39
world 12% +$235
other 10% +$36
politics 5% +$53
finance 1% +$49
crypto 0% −$4
tech 0% +$18
culture 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 51% -19.4%
≤30d 450 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -7.6%
≤90d 450 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -7.6%
all 450 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 51% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 51% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 48% -16.4%
15% -27.2% 43% -24.5%
20% -34.3% 37% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2,384
Realized+$389
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses231 / 219
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions76
Markets (closed)450 / 526
History coverage25d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $82 $103 +$21 (+26%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 98¢ $60 $79 +$19 (+31%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 88¢ $58 $77 +$19 (+32%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 97¢ $46 $73 +$27 (+60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $63 $72 +$9 (+14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $56 $66 +$10 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 40¢ 79¢ $31 $61 +$30 (+98%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+11%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 90¢ $45 $60 +$15 (+34%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 96¢ $37 $51 +$14 (+37%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 81¢ 97¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 74¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+18%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 68¢ 86¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+26%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+6%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 77¢ $29 $41 +$12 (+43%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+8%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $47 $41 −$6 (-13%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $44 $41 −$3 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 60¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 62¢ 91¢ $28 $41 +$13 (+46%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 55¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 179 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $11 +$11 +101%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $17 +$6 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $13 +$9 +63%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $22 +$24 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $32 +$9 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $21 +$18 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $54 +$21 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$42 +129%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $31 +$27 +89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$17 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 +$15 +32%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$28 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $23 +$23 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$21 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$37 +365%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $12 +$38 +301%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $23 +$37 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$22 +48%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $31 +$17 +57%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $68 +$33 +49%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$14 +15%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $20 +$31 +149%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $58 +$20 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $27 +$19 +67%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $65 +$40 +62%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$15 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $37 +$34 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $47 +$27 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $47 +$34 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $22 +$18 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $37 −$37 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$18 +44%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 +$33 +57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $44 +$31 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $35 +$39 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball BUY Paris Basketball 34¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $16 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 65¢ $26 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 87¢ $57 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $55 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $13 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 3h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $23 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $26 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $25 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $78 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $11 22h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $13 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $17 27h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 41¢ $26 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $43 27h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $22 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $28 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $22 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Bebop 30¢ $13 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $56 28h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $18 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $27 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,384.48 · official $2,384.50 (match) · 843 history records