Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

74 0x7419…7029 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$23 (-21%) realized −$23 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-42.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-36.3%	-42.4%	44%	44%	-33.1%
≤30d	9	-36.3%	-42.4%	44%	44%	-33.1%
≤90d	9	-36.3%	-42.4%	44%	44%	-33.1%
all	9	-36.3%	-42.4%	44%	44%	-33.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.4%	44%	-33.1%
10%	-47.9%	33%	-39.5%
15%	-52.9%	22%	-45.3%
20%	-57.5%	22%	-50.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$23

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	81¢	81¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 16	$8	+$4	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 16	$8	+$6	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 16	$25	+$4	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 16	$9	−$8	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 16	$8	+$3	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$20	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$8	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$8	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$8	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$8	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$8	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.12 · official $17.65 · 14 history records