Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7415…0ead crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (371 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day371.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (371 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -28.2% -35.0% 28% 28% -24.9%
≤30d 50 -28.2% -35.0% 28% 28% -24.9%
≤90d 50 -28.2% -35.0% 28% 28% -24.9%
all 50 -28.2% -35.0% 28% 28% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover371.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 28% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 16% -32.1%
15% -46.9% 10% -38.6%
20% -52.1% 10% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day371.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -79%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$23 -82%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -81%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$10 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$5 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$4 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$9 -77%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$6 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$2 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$4 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$10 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$4 -33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$11 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 382 history records