Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7413…4b09 other 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,001 (+93%) realized +$16,119 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%82W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day52.2pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1,253
sports 17% +$302
world 8% −$72
crypto 3% −$547
tech 3% −$208
finance 0% −$41
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +11.0% +0.5% 32% 32% -32.0%
≤30d 154 -36.5% -42.6% 19% 18% -25.8%
≤90d 313 -24.0% -31.2% 26% 23% -18.8%
all 313 -24.0% -31.2% 26% 23% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 23% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 20% -26.6%
15% -43.8% 18% -33.7%
20% -49.3% 17% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$34 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$16,119
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses82 / 231
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions3
Markets (closed)313 / 316
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day52.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $106 $28 −$78 (-74%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $39 $2 −$37 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $185 −$156 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $72 −$33 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $383 +$79 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $282 +$99 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $364 +$39 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $144 +$21 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$89 +631%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$163 +529%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $79 +$76 +96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $166 −$31 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$75 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $42 +$44 +103%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$179 +206%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $91 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $185 15h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 42h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.75 · official $30.75 (match) · 3500 history records