Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x740f…277b crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$982per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$13
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.9% -63.7% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -52.9% -57.3% 47% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -52.9% -57.3% 47% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -61.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -65.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -68.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,070) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -50% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2,062
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage30d
Avg bet$982
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,058 $2,057 −$1 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,050 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? May 30 $2,086 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? May 29 $2,081 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $2,074 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $2,070 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27? May 27 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,062.13 · official $2,062.13 (match) · 27 history records