Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
74 0x740e…d3c8 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 33% +2.3%
≤30d 3 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 33% +2.3%
≤90d 3 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 33% +2.3%
all 3 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 33% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% +2.3%
10% -22.4% 33% -7.4%
15% -29.9% 0% -16.4%
20% -36.8% 0% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$21 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $436 +$99 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 −$21 -38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 49m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $151 58m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 36¢ $59 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $95 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $90 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records