Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x740d…7362 other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,102 (+1%) realized +$1,101 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1,415per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$132
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1,559
politics 32% −$88
sports 13% −$376
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -7.2% -16.0% 9% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 119 -11.3% -19.7% 7% 3% -10.1%
all 152 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 11% -9.1%
10% -20.6% 11% -17.8%
15% -28.3% 9% -25.7%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,154) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$11 · ×8.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$897
Realized+$1,101
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,415
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $544 $544 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $352 $353 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,220 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $972 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,410 −$5 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,490 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $372 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $568 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,092 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,068 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $510 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $3,341 −$5 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,528 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,289 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,015 −$3 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $942 $0 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $51 +$27 +52%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,154 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,814 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,101 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $4,801 −$5 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,874 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,540 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,621 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $4,221 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $2,044 −$21 -1%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $3,098 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $544 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 3h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $885 46h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $886 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $864 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $865 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $862 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $863 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $720 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $352 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,240 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,153 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $970 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $972 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $924 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $925 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 10d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,153 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,154 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,156 12d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 32¢ $61 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 15d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 39¢ $46 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $897.24 · official $897.24 (match) · 509 history records